Suppose you have one action with your (all stats 4) Striker, and need to basically run, pick up the ball, run, pass, catch the pass with another Striker and score on that action. What are the odds?
Let's step through it.
To pick up the ball you need two successes (4,5,6) on four dice (remembering that 6's explode)... as it's late and I'm lazy, I'm availing myself of some superb work by BalrogBond on the Mantic Forums which you may need to read.
From the above, P(2 successes) = 29.1%
Now we have the ball: we run and throw with the free action we just got. It'll be a three dice roll assuming we got to short range - +1 dice for being a Striker, and -1 for having run. How many successes?
- Well, we have a 12.5% (1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2) chance of none at all.
- For each dice we have a 41.7% chance of one success, so that's 3 * (50% * 50% * 41.7%, or just a hair over 31.2% chance of one on three dice.
- for two it's a little hairer, as we can do it either by:
- one success on each of two dice (3 * 50% * 41.7% * 41.7%) = 26% PLUS
- two successes on one dice (3 * 50% * 50% * 6.9%) = 5.2%
- making a total of 31.2%
- for three successes there are several ways,
- one success on each dice = 7.2%
- three successes on one dice, 3 different ways = 3 * 1.2% * 50% * 50% = 0.9%
- two on one, one on another, six different ways = 6 * 6.9% * 41.7% * 50% = 8.6%
- for a total of 16.7%
- four? (my brain is starting to hurt).
- 4 on one dice = 0.2% * 50% * 50% = 0.05%
- 3 one one dice, one on another, six ways = 1.5% (look, just trust me!)
- 2 on two dice, 3 different ways = 0.7 %
- 2 on one, 1 on two, 3 different ways, = 1.1%
- for a total of just over 3.3%
Let's stop there, as we have a long tail of 5+ successes.
The Dreadball throw/catch rules say we get as many dice to catch as we made throwing successes. We NEED two successes to get the final throw. because we need to double to get the free action.
- Two successes on one dice? = 9.3%
- on two dice? the easy way is (1 - the odds on one or none) = 33%
- on three dice? 56.3%
- four? 77.8%
So the odds of making the catch are (31.2% * 9.3% + 31.2% * 33% + 16.7% * 56.3% + 3.3% * 77.8%) = a smidgeon over 25% not counting the 5+ successes odds.
And our final throw is a three dice throw (+1 Striker, -1 small target). We only need one success, so that's an 87.5% chance ( 1 - the odds of none).
OK. Let's tot those up.
Final odds of scoring = 29.1% (pickup) * 25.1% (pass + catch) * 87.5% (strike).
About 6.4%. Wow. My dice were on yesterday!
So. Here's the question.
You have one coaching dice. Where do you use it?