I think I've covered most of the useful techniques for figuring out the odds on various things, so we'll bring the Probability for Wargamers series of posts to an end with a handy index post for the series, for those of you who missed some of the earlier ones. Hope you've enjoyed these - there may be more later, who knows!
Probability for Wargamers 1 - Hitting on a 3 - what are the odds of hitting on a 3+ on a d6? What about failing to hit?
Probability for Wargamers 2 - The Gambler's Fallacy - why dice don't have memory, despite what you might believe
Probability for Wargamers 3 - Loot that Farm - looting rolls in Dux Brit, and figuring out how many rolls you'll need on average to succeed half the time
Probability for Wargamers 4 - More on looting - figuring out your best strategy
Probability for Wargamers 5 - The Tea Break Card - what are the odds on a card being drawn before the Tea Break/Tiffin/etc card in TFL rulesets?
Probability for Wargamers 6 - rolling two dice - the probabilities of various outcomes when rolling 2d6
Probability for Wargamers 7 - the myth of averages and rolling 3 dice - why the average result is going to get you killed, 90% certainty, and the odds on getting various numbers on 3d6
Probability for wargamers 8 - +1 vs reroll - working out how various game designers' favourite roll bonuses affect the odds
Probability for wargamers 9 - d20 vs 3d6 - looking at the graphs
Probability for Wargamers 10 - roll 3, keep worst - another interesting dice mechanic that skews the odds on target numbers
Probability for Wargamers 11 - combinations and Chain of Command - combinations - the most important tool for figuring out probabilities
Probability for Wargamers 12 - Chain of Command revisited - using combinations and common sense to figure out the odds of doing various things in Chain of Command
Probability for Wargames 13 - more Chain of Command - more odds, and discovering how, when you think clearly about something, it becomes a lot easier to figure out. And a homework exercise!